THE DECLINE OF RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE IN THE POST-SOVIET REGION AND THE REASONS BEHIND IT

The article attempts to highlight the key economic, political, and social factors that have adverse effects on current relationship dynamics between the Russian Federation and the CIS countries and are thus responsible for the gradual decline in Russia’s influence in the post-Soviet area. Authors affirm that this specific phenomenon is predetermined, on the one hand, by the aspiration of the political and economic diversification and, on the other hand, by a number of socio-cultural and psychological factors. The article argues that Russian political leaders’ perception of various post-soviet countries as “pro-Russian” is biased in its conceptual core and based on a number of subjective factors that have no actual relation to the decision-making process in these countries. In reality, the foreign policy of CIS countries is based mostly on pragmatic economic interests capable of providing steady development, which makes implementation of such subjective terms as “pro-Russian” and “pro-Western” highly misleading and unproductive, especially in the current conditions of confrontation between Russia and the West.

1. Arslanov, R.A.; Dzhangiryan, V.G.; Kurylev, K.P.; Petrovich-Belkin, O.K. West European Countries and Their Foreign Policy in the Views of the Russian Liberals of Mid-toLate Nineteenth Century // The International History Review, 2017. Mode of access: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07075332.2017.1350873?journalCode=rinh20

2. Bazileva, S.P.; Chernenko, E.F. Sotrudnichestvo Uzbekistana i Rossii kak stabiliziruyushchij faktor na evrazijskom prostranstve (Evolution of Relations Between Russia and Uzbekistan) // Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 2016, Vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 505-520.

3. Degterev, D.; Vasilyuk, I.; Baum, V. Parametry mnogovektornosti vneshnej politiki stran SNG: prikladnoj analiz (Multiplexity Parameters of the CIS Foreign Policy: Applied Analysis) // World Economy and International Relations,2018, No. 1, Vol. 62, pp. 63-75.

4. Descalzi C.A.G. Russian Hegemony in the CIS Region: an Examination of Russian Infl uence and of Variation in Consent and Dissent by CIS States to Regional Hierarchy. Mode of access: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277072514_Russian_hegemony_in_the_CIS_region_an_examination_of_Russian_influence_and_of_variation_in_consent_and_dissent_by_CIS_states_to_regional_hierarchy

5. Dorozhkin, YU.N. Aktual’nye problemy modernizacii politicheskoj sistemy Rossii (Contemporary Problems of the Russian Political System Modernization) // Vlast’, 2012, No. 10, pp. 10-13.

6. Fedorchenko, S.N. MVF i social’no-politicheskie processy na postsovetskom prostranstve (IMF and SocioPolitical Processes in the Post-Soviet Space) // Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 2017, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 22-33.

7. Galoyan, N.G. Armyano-gruzinskie otnosheniya v kontekste regional’noj bezopasnosti na YUhnom Kavkaze [Armenian-Georgian Relations in the Context of Regional Security in Transcaucasia] // Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 2015, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 120-131.

8. Gomart, T. What is Russia’s influence in Post-Soviet sphere? Mode of access: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/290650293_What_is_Russia%27s_influence_in_Post-Soviet_sphere

9. Kurylev, K.P.; Naryshkin, V.S.; Ozinkovskaya, E.; Rakhimov, K.Kh. Evraziiskii ekonomicheskii soyuz vo vneshnepoliticheskoi strategii Rossii (EAEU in Russian Foreign Policy Strategy) // Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 2016, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 75-86.

10. Kurylev, K.P.; Ngoyan, A.L.; Palasios, K.E.; Skudna, O.V. Neuregulirovannye konfl ikty na postsovetskom prostranstve v analize zapadnyh ehkspertno-analiticheskih centrov (Unsettled Confl icts in the Post-Soviet Space in the Analysis of the Western Research Centers) // Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 2016, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 482-493.

11. Menon, R.; Rumer, E.B. Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order. Massachusetts: The MIT Press, 2014. 248 p.

12. Obolenskij, V. Otkrytost’ nacional’nyh jekonomik: mir i Rossija (The Openness of National Economies: The World and Russia) // World Economy and International Relations, 2017, No. 10, Vol. 61, pp. 5-15.

13. Petrovich-Belkin, O.; Bokeriya, S.; Yeryomin, A. The Problem of Russiaʼs Declining Influence in the Former Soviet Union: Why Are the CIS Countries Drifting Toward Multilateralism? // International Organisations Research Journal, 2019, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 94-112.

14. Zagorsky, A. Russia and East Central Europe after the Cold War. Mode of access: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/idmoe/11384.pdf