NEW PACIFIC STRATEGIES: OPPORTUNITY OR REALITY? INFLUENCE OF THE “CHINESE FACTOR” ON THE SITUATION IN EURASIA AND THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
https://doi.org/10.18611/2221-3279-2018-9-3-128-145
Abstract
The article analyzes the essence of the new strategic moment in the region and the influence of the “Chinese factor” on the situation inEurasiaand the AsiaPacific region. The author discusses the components of the “Chinese factor”, its practical consequences, as well as its foreign policy, military and political significance. The article shows how applied issues can be transformed into foreign policy and military doctrines, determine practical foreign and military policies, the system of international relations and political affairs in the region. The author briefly reviews the key aspects of regional doctrines of leading states in the region, makes assumptions about the possible evolution and modification of these doctrines in the future and formulates the conditions that might determine the practical steps of the regional powers. The article also assesses the possibility of emergence of new Pacific strategies in the region and examines their main parameters.
About the Author
A. D. VoskressenskiRussian Federation
Alexei D. Voskressenski – Dr. of Political Science, PhD (Manchester University), Professor, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive Chinese Studies and Regional Projects; Professor, Department of Asian and African Studies, School of International Relations
Moscow
References
1. 19 s”ezd KPK: vneshnie i vnutrennie posledstviia i perspektivy reform v Kitae (19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China: Internal and External Effects and Prospects of China’s Reforms) // Sravnitel’naia politika (Comparative Politics Russia), 2018, No. 2, pp. 140-159.
2. American Australian and Japanese Perspectives on a Changing Security Environment // CCC PASCC Reports, 2016, No. 2.
3. Bergsten, C. Fred and the Institute for International Economics. The United States and the World Economy. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 2005.
4. Blokhin, K. V poiskakh strategicheskikh prioritetov (In Search of Strategic Priorities) // Natsional’naia oborona, 2017, No. 2.
5. Bogaturov, A.D. Velikie derzhavy na Tikhom okeane: istoriia i teoriia mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii v Vostochnoi Azii posle Vtoroi Mirovoi voiny (Great Powers in the Pacific: History and Theory of International Relations in East Asia after the Second World War). Moscow: KonvertMONF, 1997.
6. Bol’shaia Vostochnaia Aziia: mirovaia politika i regional’nye transformatsii (Greater East Asia: World Politics and Regional Transformations). Moscow: MGIMO Universitet, 2010.
7. Cheng, Li. Chinese Politics in the Xi Jingping Era. Reassessing Collective Leadership. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2016.
8. Clegg, Jenny. China’s Global Strategy. London & New York: Pluto Press, 2009.
9. Cordesman, A.H.; Collay, C.; Wang, M. Chinese Strategy and Military Modernization in 2015 // A Comparative Analysis, CSIS, December, 2015.
10. Cronin, Patrik. Tramp’s Post-Pivot Strategy // The Diplomat, November 11, 2017.
11. Dayly, Robert. Donald Trump Asia’s Trip // Newsweek, November 20, 2017.
12. Feuchtwang, Stephan; Steinmuller, Hans. China in Comparative Perspective. Singapore: World Scientific, 2017.
13. Gilev, A. Mnogomernaia voina i novaia oboronnaia strategiia (A Multidimensional War and a New Defense Strategy) // Rossiia v global’noi politike, 2014, T.12, No. 5.
14. Haggard, Stephan; Myung Hwan Yu. Tramp in Asia // Global Asia, Vol. 12, No. 4, Winter 2017.
15. Hauner, Milan. What is Asia to Us? Russia’s Asian Hartland Yesterday and Today. New York: Routledge, 1992. Holstag, Jonathan. China’s Coming War with Asia. Malden, Mass.: Polity Press, 2016.
16. Kapitsa, L.M. Indikatory mirovogo razvitiia (Indicators of World Development). Moscow: MGIMO Universitet, 2016.
17. Khrustalev, M.A. Analiz mezhdunarodnykh situatsii i mezhdunarodnaia ekspertiza (Analysis of International Situations and International Expertise). Moscow: AspektPress, 2015.
18. Kim, Joonhyung. Evaluating Trump’s Visit to South Korea // East Asia Foundation Policy, 2017, No.85.
19. Kitai i Vostochnaia Evropa: zven’ia novogo Shelkovogo puti (China and Eastern Europe: Links of the New Silk Road) / Ed. by V. Mikheev, V. Shvydko. Moscow: IMEMO RAN, 2016.
20. Kondratov, A.I. Model’ vneshnepoliticheskoi deiatel’nosti gosudarstva (Foreign Policy Model of a State). Moscow: Izdatel’stvo RAGS, 2010.
21. Krizis i novaia povestka dnia dlia koreiskogo poluostrova i regional’nykh derzhav (Crisis and a New Agenda for the Korean Peninsula and Regional Powers) / Ed. by V. Mikheev, V. Shvydko. Moscow: IMEMO RAN, 2018.
22. Kudrov, V.M. Mezhdunarodnye ekonomicheskie sopostavleniia i problemy innovatsionnogo razvitiia (International Economic Comparisons and Problems of Innovative Development). Moscow: Iustitsinform, 2011.
23. Lee, Bernice. The Security Implications of New Taiwan. London: IISS Adelphi Paper, No. 331.
24. Mezhdunarodnoe ekonomicheskoe sotrudnichestvo v novykh realiiakh. Spetsial’nyi vypusk k nedele rossiiskogo biznesa (International Economic Cooperation in New Realities. Special Issue for the Week of Russian Business) // Novosti ATR, No. 1(9).
25. Mills, Daniel Quinn; Rosefielde, Steven. The Trump Phenomenon and the Future of US Foreign Policy. Singapore, London, Mumbai, New York: World Scientific, 2016.
26. Mirovaia ekonomika. Prognoz do 2020 g. (World Economy. Forecast to 2020) / Ed. by A.A. Dynkin. Moscow: Magistr, 2007.
27. Na puti k realizatsii strategicheskikh initsiativ KNR i Rossii. Spetsial’nyi vypusk k vizitu Predsedatelia KNR Si Tszin’pina v Rossiiu (On the Way to Implementing the Strategic Initiatives of the PRC and Russia) // Novosti ATR, No. 2 (7).
28. Nekotorye aspekty analiza voenno-politicheskoi obstanovki: monografiia (Some Aspects of the Analysis of the Military-Political Situation) / Ed. by A.I. Podberezkin, K.P. Borishpolets. Moscow: MGIMO, 2014.
29. Novyi Shelkovyi put’ i ego znachenie dlia Rossii (New Silk Road and Its Significance for Russia) / Ed. By V.E. Petrovsky, A.G. Larin. Moscow: DeLi plius, 2016.
30. Opportunity, Security Strength: The 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper // Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, November 23, 2017.
31. Overholt, William H.; Ma Guonan; Chewng Kwok Law. Renminbi Risisng. A New Global Monetary System Emerges. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 2016.
32. Pandolfe, Frank C. The Evolution of Modern U.S. Naval Strategy // Naval War College Review, 2016, Vol. 69, No. 4.
33. Petersen, A. Rossiia, Kitai i energeticheskaia geopolitika v Tsentral’noi Azii (China and Energy Geopolitics in Central Asia). Moscow: Mosk. Tsentr Karnegi, 2012.
34. Praktika zarubezhnogo regionovedeniia i mirovoi politiki (The Practice of World Regional Studies and World Politics) / Ed. by A.D. Voskressenski. Moscow: MagistrInfra-M, 2016.
35. Prognoz strategii stran tikhookeanskogo prostranstva (Forecast of Strategies of the Countries of the Pacific Space) / Ed. by V. Mikheev, V. Shvydko. Moscow: IMEMO RAN, 2017.
36. Rossiia i mir v 2020 g.: Kontury trevozhnogo budushchego (Russia and the World in 2020: Contours of an Alarming Future). Moscow: Eksmo, 2015.
37. Rubel, Robert C. Exporting Security. China, the United States, and the Innovator’s Dilemma // Naval War College Review, 2017, Vol. 70, No. 2.
38. Rubel, Robert P. Posture versus Presence. The Relationship between Global Naval Engagement and Naval War-Fighting Posture // Naval War College Review, 2016, Vol. 69, No. 4.
39. Shambaugh, David. China’s Communist Party. Atrophy and Adaptation. Washington, DC.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2008.
40. Shambaugh, David. China’s Future. Malden, Mass.: Polity Press, 2016.
41. Sovremennye rossiisko-kitaiskie otnosheniia (Modern Russian-Chinese Relations) / Ed. by S.G. Luzianin, A.G. Larin, E.I. Safronova, I.V. Ushakov, E.V. Belilina. Moscow: DeLi plius, 2017.
42. Sovremennyi Kitai v usloviiakh transformatsii (Modern China in Transformation) / Ed. by D.V. Kuznetsov, D.V. Buiarov. Moscow: LENAND, 2015.
43. Strategicheskii global’nyi prognoz 2030 (Strategic Global Forecast 2030) / Ed. by A.A. Dynkin. Moscow: Magistr, 2011.
44. Strategicheskoe prognozirovanie mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii: kol. monografiia (Strategic Forecasting of International Relations) / Ed. by A.I. Podberezkin, M.V. Aleksandrov. Moscow: MGIMO Universitet, 2016.
45. The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography and the Evolving balance of Power, 1996-2017 // RAND, California, 2015.
46. Van Jackson. Tactics of Strategic Competition. Grey Zones, Redlines, and Conflicts before War // Naval War College Review, 2017, Vol. 70, No.3.
47. Voskressenski, Alexei D. Non-Western International Relations Theories. Springer Global (Europe-America): Palgrave Macmillan, 2017.
48. Vtoraia mezhdunarodnaia konferentsiia «Rossiia i Kitai: k novomu kachestvu dvustoronnikh otnoshenii» (The Second International Conference “Russia and China: Towards a New Quality of Bilateral Relations”). Moscow: RSMD, 2016.
49. Wang Yi Briefs on Mar-a-Lago between Heads of State of China and the US // Chinese Foreign Ministry, April 8, 2017.
50. Yip, George S.; Mckern, Bruce. China’s Next Strategic Advantage. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2016.
51. Zhao Hong. The South China Sea and China-ASEAN Relations // Trends in South-East Asia, 2014, No. 6.
52. Indu Jueqi yu Zhong-In Gianxi (The Rise of India and Chinese-Indian Relations). Beijing: Dangdai shijie chubanshe, 2006 (in Сhinese).
53. Junshi Tekan. Junshi Qingbao (Military Special Issue / Military Information). Beijing: Beijing gongren yingshuguang, no date (in Сhinese).
54. Lu Mingfu. Zhongguo Meng (A Chinese Dream). Beijing: Zhongguo youchi chuban gongsi, 2013 (in Сhinese).
55. Wei Lihua. Nengyuan Boyi Dazhan (The Struggle for Resourses). Beijing: Xin shijie chubabshe, 2007 (in Сhinese).
56. Xi Jinping. Report to the 19th Congress of the CPC / CPC.PEOPLE.COM.CN: http://cpc.people.com.cn/n1/2017/1028/c64094-29613660-15.html (in Сhinese)
57. Zhongguo 2020: Fazhan Mubiao he Zhengce Quxiang (China 2020: Development Goals and the Course Destination). Beijing: Zhonguo fazhan chubanshe, 2008 (in Сhinese).
58. Zhongguo Shiyou Anquan (China’s Petrol Security). Beijing: Zhongguo shehui kexue chubanshe, 2003 (in Сhinese)
Review
For citations:
Voskressenski A.D. NEW PACIFIC STRATEGIES: OPPORTUNITY OR REALITY? INFLUENCE OF THE “CHINESE FACTOR” ON THE SITUATION IN EURASIA AND THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION. Comparative Politics Russia. 2018;9(3):128-145. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18611/2221-3279-2018-9-3-128-145