Counterintervention Success: Analyzing Russian and US Involvement in Syrian Crisis
https://doi.org/10.46272/2221-3279-2023-1-2-14-149-163
Аннотация
The Arab Spring that began in Tunisia in 2010 quickly spread throughout the Middle East, fueling protests in many countries of the region, including Libya and Syria. While in Libya the UN Security Council supported NATO’s military intervention against the Gaddafi regime, the Syrian case caused disparity in views, with Russia and China vetoing the Western countries’ attempt to intervene in the conflict and topple Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad. The US intention to intervene directly in the Syrian civil war, triggered by the 2013 chemical weapons crisis, was successfully halted by Russian diplomatic efforts. Yet, the rising threat of terrorism in Syria and Iraq prompted the establishment of the US-led Global coalition against Daesh/ISIS, which conducted airstrikes in 2014, forcing Assad, who at that time had lost control over a significant part of Syria’s territory, to appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin for assistance. As a result, Russia began its counterintervention in Syria to support Assad’s struggle to remain in power, fight terrorism and regain control of the country. This article discusses US and Russian objectives in the Syrian crisis, the limited results of the US-led military intervention and the success of the Russian counterintervention.
Ключевые слова
Об авторах
Д. Н. ЧерновРоссия
Даниил Николаевич Чернов — аспирант Национального исследовательского университета «Высшая школа экономики», участник проекта РНФ No 22–18–00664, МГИМО МИД России
А. Д. Несмашный
Россия
Александр Дмитриевич Несмашный — научный сотрудник Центра евроазиатских исследований, Институт международных исследований, МГИМО МИД России
О. Текин
Россия
Осман Текин — аспирант Центра евроазиатских исследований, Институт международных исследований, МГИМО МИД России
А. А. Игитян
Россия
Астхик Арсеновна Игитян — аналитик Центра евроазиатских исследований, Институт международных исследований, МГИМО МИД России
Список литературы
1. Abratt D. (2017) U.S. Intervention in Syria: A Legal Responsibility to Protect? Denver Law Review 95: 21-71.
2. Allison R. (2013) Russia, the West and Military Intervention. United Kingdom: Oxford University Press. 320 p.
3. Altfeld M., Bueno de Mesquita B. (1979) Choosing Sides in Wars. International Studies Quarterly 23(1): 87-112. DOI: 10.2307/2600275.
4. Aydin A. (2010) Where Do States Go? Strategy in Civil War Intervention. Conflict Management and Peace Science 27(1): 47-66. DOI: 10.1177/0738894209352128.
5. Baranovskiy V.G. (2019). Novyi miroporiadok: preodolenie starogo ili ego transformatsiia? [New International Order: Overcoming or Transforming the Existing Pattern?]. Mirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia [World Eсonomy and International Relations] 63(5): 7-23. DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-5-7-23. (In Russian).
6. Bartenev V.I. (2018) «Vzaimno garantirovannaia obstruktsiia»? Rossiia, strany Zapada i politicheskie dilemmy vosstanovleniia Sirii. [‘Mutually Assured Obstruction’? Russia, the West and Political Dilemmas of Syria’s Reconstruction]. Vestnik RUDN. Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia [Vestnik RUDN. International Relations] 18(4): 755—774. DOI: 10.22363/2313-0660-2018-18-4-755-774. (In Russian).
7. Campbell H., Mazrui A.A. (2013) Introduction. The NATO Intervention in Libya: A Lesson of Colossal Failure. In Global NATO and the Catastrophic Failure in Libya. NYU Press, pp. 17-34.
8. Cengiz S. (2020) Assessing the Astana peace process for Syria: Actors, approaches, and differences. Contemporary Review of the Middle East 7(2): 200-214. DOI: 10.1177/2347798920901876.
9. Corbetta R., Melin M.M. (2018) Exploring the Threshold between Conflict Management and Joining in Biased Interventions. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(10): 2205–2231.
10. Dannreuther R. (2014) Russia and the Arab Spring: Supporting the Counter-Revolution. Journal of European Integration (12): 77-94.
11. Denisov I., Kazantsev A., Lukyanov F., Safranchuk I. (2019). Shifting Strategic Focus of BRICS and Great Power Competition. Strategic Analysis 43(6): 487-498. DOI: 10.1080/09700161.2019.1669888.
12. Eminue O., Dickson M. (2013) The United Nations Resolutions on Syria: Exploration of Motivation from Russia and China. International Affairs and Global Strategy (10): 5-13.
13. Findley M., Teo T. (2006) Rethinking Third-Party Interventions into Civil Wars: An Actor-Centric Approach. Journal of Politics 68: 828-837. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00473.x.
14. Giles K. (2017) The Turning Point for Russian Foreign Policy. Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College.
15. Isaev L.M., Korotaev A.V., Mardasov A.G. (2018) Metamorfozy mezhsiriiskogo peregovornogo protsessa. [Metamorphoses of Intra-Syria Negotiation Process]. Mirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia [World Eсonomy and International Relations] 62(3): 20-28. DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-3-20-28. (In Russian).
16. Istomin I.A., Baykov A.A. (2019) Dinamika mezhdunarodnykh al'iansov v neravnovesnoi mirovoi sisteme. [Dynamics of International Alliances In An Unbalanced World Structure]. Mirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia [World Eсonomy and International Relations] 63(1): 34-48. DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-1-34-48. (In Russian).
17. Karaganov S.A. (2019) Ukhod voennogo prevoskhodstva Zapada i geoekonomika. [Departure of Military Superiority of the West, and Geo-Economics]. Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniia [Polis. Political Studies] (6): 8-21. DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2019.06.02. (In Russian).
18. Kaw M. (1990) Choosing Sides: Testing a Political Proximity Model. American Journal of Political Science 34(2): 441-470.
19. Khodynskaya-Golenischeva M.S. (2015) Ciriiskii krizis, metody destabilizatsii «neugodnykh» gosudarstv i provotsirovanie «upravliaemogo khaosa». [Syrian Crisis in the Context of Emerging Multipolar International Order]. Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta [MGIMO Review of International Relations] 42(2): 43-50. DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2015-3-42-43-50. (In Russian).
20. Kofman M. (2017) A Tale of Two Campaigns: U.S. and Russian Military Operations in Syria. Pathways to Peace and Security 52(1): 163-170. DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2017-1-163-170.
21. Kozhanov N. (2016) Russia and the Syrian Conflict: Moscow’s Domestic, Regional and Strategic Interests. Gerlach Press.
22. Kuznetsov V.A. (2018) Problema ukrepleniia gosudarstvennosti na Blizhnem Vostoke v svete teorii sotsial'nykh poriadkov. [Strengthening Of Statehood In The Middle East In The Context Of The Theory Of Social Orders] Vostok. Afro-aziatskie obshchestva: istoriia i sovremennost' [East. Afro-AsianSocieties: History and Modernity] (3): 6-23. DOI: 10.7868/S0869190818030019. (In Russian).
23. Mason R., Suchkov M. A. (2021) Russia in Syria and the Middle East: Tactics Disguised as a Strategy? Transnational security cooperation in the Mediterranean (pp. 147-161). DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-54444-7_7.
24. Naumkin V.V. (2015) Gluboko razdelennye obshchestva Blizhnego i Srednego Vostoka: konfliktnost', nasilie, vneshnee vmeshatel'stvo. [Deeply Divided Societies in the Middle East: Conflict, Violence, and Foreign Intervention]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriia 25. Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia i mirovaia politika [Lomonosov World Politics Journal] 7(1): 66-96. (In Russian).
25. Nesmashnyi A.D., Zhornist V.M., Safranchuk I.A. (2022) International Hierarchy and Functional Differentiation of States: Results of an Expert Survey. MGIMO Journal of International Relations [MGIMO Review of International Relations] 15(3): 7-38. DOI: 10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf2.
26. Safranchuk I.A. (2018) Russian-U.S. Relations: Torn between the Practical and Ideational Agendas. Rossiya v global'noj politike [Russia in Global Affairs] 16(4): 96-119. DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2018-16-4-96-119.
27. Safranchuk I.A., Lukyanov F.A. (2021) Sovremennyi mirovoi poriadok: strukturnye realii i sopernichestvo velikikh derzhav. [The Modern World Order: Structural Realities and Great Power Rivalries]. Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniia [Polis. Political Studies] 3: 57-76. DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2021.03.05. (In Russian).
28. Safranchuk I.A., Lukyanov F.A. (2021) Sovremennyi mirovoi poriadok: adaptatsiia aktorov k strukturnym realiiam [The Contemporary World Order: The Adaptation Of Actors To Structural Realities]. Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniia [Polis. Political Studies] (4): 19-25. DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2021.04.03. (In Russian).
29. Suchkov M.A., Khodynskaya-Golenischeva M.S. (2021) Cravnitel'nyi analiz rossiiskikh strategii soiuznichestva na blizhnem vostoke. [Comparative Analysis of Russia’s Alliance-Formation Strategies in the Middle East]. Sravnitel'naia politika [Comparative Politics Russia] 12(1): 69-81. DOI: 10.24411/2221-3279-2021-10006. (In Russian).
30. Sukhov N.V. (2020) Sovremennaia situatsii v Sirii i perspektivy ee razvitiia. [The Current Situation in Syria and Prospects for its Development]. Vostok. Afro-Aziatskie obshchestva: istoriia i sovremennost [East. Afro-AsianSocieties: History and Modernity] (2): 74-84. DOI: 10.31857/S086919080009057-9. (In Russian).
31. Torkunov A.V., Simonia N.A. (2015) Novyi mirovoi poriadok: ot bipoliarnosti k mnogopoliusnosti. [New World Order: from Bipolarity to Multipolarity]. Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniia [Polis. Political Studies] (3): 27-37. DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2015.03.03. (In Russian).
32. Zvyagelskaya I.D. (2016) Russia, the New Protagonist in the Middle East. Putin’s Russia: Really Back? Milan: Italian Institute for International Political Studies, pp. 73-91.
33. Zvyagelskaya I.D. (2017). Suverenitet i gosudarstvennost' na Blizhnem Vostoke-nevynosimaia khrupkost' bytiia. [Sovereignty and Statehood in the Middle East – the Unbearable Fragility of Being]. Kontury global'nykh transformatsii: politika, ekonomika, pravo [Outlines of Global Transformations: Politics, Economics, Law] 10(2): 97-109. DOI: 10.23932/2542-0240-2017-10-2-97-109. (In Russian).
Рецензия
Для цитирования:
Чернов Д.Н., Несмашный А.Д., Текин О., Игитян А.А. Counterintervention Success: Analyzing Russian and US Involvement in Syrian Crisis. Сравнительная политика. 2023;14(1-2):149-163. https://doi.org/10.46272/2221-3279-2023-1-2-14-149-163
For citation:
Chernov D.N., Nesmashnyi A.D., Tekin O., Igityan A.A. Counterintervention Success: Analyzing Russian and US Involvement in Syrian Crisis. Comparative Politics Russia. 2023;14(1-2):149-163. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.46272/2221-3279-2023-1-2-14-149-163