<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.3 20210610//EN" "JATS-journalpublishing1-3.dtd">
<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">comparativepolitics</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Сравнительная политика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Comparative Politics Russia</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2221-3279</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2412-4990</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Издательская группа «Юрист»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24411/2221-3279-2019-100007</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">comparativepolitics-914</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>МАТЕРИАЛЫ ДЛЯ ДИСКУССИИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>DISCUSSION</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>KОРРУПЦИЯ, ЦЕННОСТИ И ПОПЫТКИ НАСИЛЬСТВЕННЫХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЙ ВЛАСТИ В СТРАНАХ С РАЗЛИЧНЫМ УРОВНЕМ ВВП НА ДУШУ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ: ОПЫТ КОЛИЧЕСТВЕННОГО КОМПАРАТИВНОГО И КОРРЕЛЯЦИОННОГО АНАЛИЗА</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title></trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Коротаев</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>доктор философии (Ph.D.), д.и.н., профессор, зав. Научно-учебной лабораторией мониторинга рисков социально-политической дестабилизации</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">akorotayev@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Цирель</surname><given-names>С. В.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д.т.н.</p><p>главный научный сотрудник</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">tsirel58@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Билюга</surname><given-names>С. Э.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>младший научный сотрудник, Научно-учебная лаборатория мониторинга рисков социально-политической дестабилизации</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">sbilyuga@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff xml:lang="ru" id="aff-1"><institution>Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»&#13;
Институт Африки Российской академии наук</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><aff xml:lang="ru" id="aff-2"><institution>Санкт-Петербургский горный университет&#13;
НЦ геомеханики и проблем горного производства</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><aff xml:lang="ru" id="aff-3"><institution>Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2019</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>25</day><month>12</month><year>2018</year></pub-date><volume>10</volume><issue>1</issue><issue-title>В номере "Информационно-правовая политика"</issue-title><fpage>98</fpage><lpage>123</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Коротаев А.В., Цирель С.В., Билюга С.Э., 2018</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2018</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Коротаев А.В., Цирель С.В., Билюга С.Э.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Коротаев А.В., Цирель С.В., Билюга С.Э.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.sravpol.ru/jour/article/view/914">https://www.sravpol.ru/jour/article/view/914</self-uri><abstract><p>Показано, что частота переворотов и попыток переворотов примерно в равной степени связана как с уровнем коррумпированности, так и с уровнем подушевого ВВП, причем в отношении попыток свержения центральной власти влияние уровня ВВП на душу населения оказывается немного сильнее, а в отношении свержения всех органов власти в совокупности, как центральных, так и местных, степень коррумпированности оказывает большее воздействие. При этом оба показателя находятся в тесной связи между собой, однако скорость роста ВВП не имеет устойчивой корреляции с коррупцией и слабо коррелирована с частотой попыток насильственного свержения органов государственной власти. Полученные зависимости сложным образом связаны с ценностными представлениями. В группе развитых стран с уровнем коррумпированности менее 40 баллов (по 100-балльной шкале) наблюдается существенная положительная корреляция между некоррумпированостью и ценностями самовыражения. В остальных странах ценности не оказывают влияния на уровень коррумпированности, зато влияют на темпы экономического роста и частоту попыток свержения власти. Проведенное исследование показало, что при равных уровнях коррумпированности в странах низкого и среднего уровня экономического развития для устойчивости власти и быстрого экономического роста полезен отказ от традиционализма и вреден слишком ранний переход к ценностям самовыражения. Однако переход через рубеж подушевого ВВП 20-25 тыс. долл. в год затруднителен, если не сопровождается снижением уровня коррумпированности ниже уровня в 40–50 баллов. Есть основания предполагать, что современная Россия с подушевым ВВП около 25 тыс. долл. в год и уровнем коррумпированности выше 70 баллов, может находиться именно в такой ситуации. </p></abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>коррупция</kwd><kwd>дестабилизация</kwd><kwd>государственный переворот</kwd><kwd>попытка государственного переворота</kwd><kwd>ВВП на душу населения</kwd><kwd>рост ВВП</kwd><kwd>устойчивость роста</kwd><kwd>традиционные ценности</kwd><kwd>рациональные ценности</kwd><kwd>ценности выживания</kwd><kwd>ценности самовыражения</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Голдстоун Д.А. Революции. Очень краткое введение. ‒ М.: Изд-во Ин-та Гайдара, 2015.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Acemoglu, D.; Robinson, J. The Role of Institutions in Growth and Development. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2010.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit2"><label>2</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Заработная плата и коррупция: как платить российским чиновникам? Аналитический доклад / Индем. ‒ М. 2002. Режим доступа: http://www.anti-corr.ru/indem/2002salary_corruption.htm</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Aiyar, S.; Duval, R.; Puy, D.; Wu, Y. Zhang L. Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap. IMF Working Paper No. WP/13/71. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2013.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit3"><label>3</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Инглхарт Р., Вельцель К. Модернизация, культурные изменения и демократия. Последовательность человеческого развития. ‒ М.: Новое издательство, 2011.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Banks, A.S.; Wilson, K.A. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive. Databanks International. Jerusalem, Israel. Mode of access:  http://www.databanksinternational.com</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit4"><label>4</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Коротаев А., Васькин И., Билюга С. Гипотеза Олсона-Хантингтона о криволинейной зависимости между уровнем экономического развития и социально-политической дестабилизацией: опыт количественного анализа // Социологическое обозрение. ‒ 2017. ‒ Т. 16. No. 1. ‒ С. 9-49.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Belkin, A.; Schofer, E. Toward a Structural Understanding of Coup Risk // Journal of Confl ict Resolution, 2003, No. 47(5), pp. 594-620.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit5"><label>5</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Коротаев А.В., Билюга С.Э., Шишкина А.Р. ВВП на душу населения, интенсивность антиправительственных демонстраций и уровень образования. Кросс-национальный анализ // Журнал политической философии и социологии политики «Полития. Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз». – 2017. – No. 1(84). ‒ С. 127-143.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Bertrand, M.; Luttmer, E.F.P.; Mullainathan, S. Network Effects and Welfare Cultures // The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2000, No. 115(3), pp. 1019-1055.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit6"><label>6</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Коротаев А.В., Билюга С.Э., Шишкина А.Р. ВВП на душу населения, уровень протестной активности и тип режима: опыт количественного анализа // Сравнительная политика. – 2016. – No. 4(26). ‒ С. 72-94.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Bicchieri, C.; Rovelli, C. Evolution and Revolution: The Dynamics of Corruption // Rationality and Society, 1995, No. 7(2), pp. 201-224.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit7"><label>7</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Коротаев А.В., Билюга С.Э., Шишкина А.Р. Экономический рост и социально-политическая дестабилизация: опыт глобального анализа // Полис. Политические исследования. ‒ 2017. ‒ No. 2. ‒ С. 155-169.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Bouzid, B. Using a Semi-Parametric Analysis to Understand the Occurrence of Coups d’état in Developing Countries // International Journal of Peace Studies, 2011, pp. 53-79.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit8"><label>8</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Коротаев А.В., Гринин Л.Е., Исаев Л.М., Билюга С.Э., Васькин И.А., Слинько Е.В., Шишкина А.Р., Мещерина К.В. Дестабилизация: глобальные, национальные, природные факторы и механизмы. – М.: Московская редакция издательства «Учитель», 2017.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Buonanno, P.; Montolio, D.; Vanin, P. Does Social Capital Reduce Crime? // The Journal of Law and Economics, 2009, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 145-170.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit9"><label>9</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Коротаев А.В., Исаев Л.М., Васильев А.М. Количественный анализ революционной волны 2013-2014 гг. // Социологические исследования. – 2015. – No. 8. – С. 119-127.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Cai, F. Is There a “Middle-Income Trap”? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China // China &amp; World Economy, 2012, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 49-61.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit10"><label>10</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Коротаев А.В., Халтурина Д.А. Современные тенденции мирового развития. – Москва: URSS, 2008.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Campos, J.E.; Lien, D.; Pradhan, S. The Impact of Corruption on Investment: Predictability Matters // World Development, 1999, Vol. 27, No. 6, pp. 1059-1067.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit11"><label>11</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Цирель С.В. К истокам украинских революционных событий 2013-14 гг. // Polit.ru. 2014. Режим доступа: http://polit.ru/article/2014/06/08/ukraine/</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Center for Systemic Peace. Coups d’Etat, 1946-2016. Vienna, VA: Center for Systemic Peace, 2018. Mode of access: http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/CSPCoupsListv2016.xls</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit12"><label>12</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Цирель С.В. Революционные ситуации, революции и волны революций: условия, закономерности, примеры // Ойкумена. Вып. 8 / Науч. ред., сост. А.А. Фисун. ‒ Харьков. 2011. ‒ С. 174-209.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Cherny, R. W. American Politics in the Gilded Age: 1868-1900. N.Y.: Wiley, 1997.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit13"><label>13</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Acemoglu, D.; Robinson, J. The Role of Institutions in Growth and Development. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2010.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Goldstone, D.A. Revolyutsii. Ochen’ kratkoevvedenie (Revolutions. A very Short Introduction). Moscow: Izd-vo In-ta Gaidara, 2015.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit14"><label>14</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Aiyar, S.; Duval, R.; Puy, D.; Wu, Y. Zhang L. Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap. IMF Working Paper No. WP/13/71. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2013.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Goldstone, J. Protests in Ukraine, Thailand and Venezuela: What Unites them? // Russia Direct, 2014. Mode of access: http://www.russia-direct.org/content/protests-ukraine-thailand-and-venezuela-what-unites-them</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit15"><label>15</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Banks, A.S.; Wilson, K.A. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive. Databanks International. Jerusalem, Israel. Mode of access: http://www.databanksinternational.com</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Goldstone, J.A. Understanding the Revolutions of 2011: Weakness and Resilience in Middle Eastern Autocracies // Foreign Affairs, 2011, No. 90, pp. 8-16.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit16"><label>16</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Belkin, A.; Schofer, E.Toward a Structural Understanding of Coup Risk // Journal of Confl ict Resolution, 2003, No. 47(5), pp. 594-620.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Grinin, L.; Korotayev, A. Great Divergence and Great Convergence. A Global Perspective. New York, NY: Springer, 2015.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit17"><label>17</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Bertrand, M.; Luttmer, E.F.P.; Mullainathan, S. Network Effects and Welfare Cultures // The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2000, No. 115(3), pp. 1019-1055.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Gyimah-Brempong, K., Samaria M. de C. Corruption, Growth, and Income Distribution: Are there Regional Differences? // Economics of Governance, 2006, No. 7(3), рp. 245-269.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit18"><label>18</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Bicchieri, C.; Rovelli, C. Evolution and Revolution: The Dynamics of Corruption // Rationality and Society, 1995, No. 7(2), pp. 201-224.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Hessami, Z. Political Corruption, Public Procurement, and Budget Composition: Theory and Evidence from OECD Countries // European Journal of Political Economy, 2014, No. 34, pp. 372-389.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit19"><label>19</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Bouzid, B. Using a Semi-Parametric Analysis to Understand the Occurrence of Coups d’état in Developing Countries // International Journal of Peace Studies, 2011, pp. 53-79.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Inglehart, R.; Welzel, C. Modernizacija, kul’tur nye izmenenija i demokratij. Posledovatel’nost’ chelovecheskogorazvitija (Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy. The Human Development Sequence). Moscow: Novoeizdatel’stvo, 2011.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit20"><label>20</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Buonanno, P.; Montolio, D.; Vanin, P. Does Social Capital Reduce Crime? // The Journal of Law and Economics, 2009, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 145-170.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Ionescu, L. Corruption, Unemployment, and the Global Financial Crisis // Economics, Management and Financial Markets, 2012, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 127-133.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit21"><label>21</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Cai, F. Is There a “Middle-Income Trap”? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China // China &amp; World Economy, 2012, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 49-61.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Khan, M. Governance, Economic Growth and Development since the 1960s. DESA Working Paper N. 54, 2007.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit22"><label>22</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Campos, J.E.; Lien, D.; Pradhan, S. The Impact of Corruption on Investment: Predictability Matters // World Development, 1999, Vol. 27, No. 6, pp. 1059-1067.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kharas, H.; Kohli, H. What Is the Middle Income Trap, Why Do Countries Fall into it, and How Can It Be Avoided // Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 2011, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 281-289.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit23"><label>23</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Center for Systemic Peace. Coups d’Etat, 1946-2016. Vienna, VA: Center for Systemic Peace, 2018.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Khestanov, R. Corruption and Revolution as Structural Foundations for the Fiction of State Interest (Raison d’État) // Russian Journal of Philosophy &amp; Humanities, 2017, No. 1, pp. 73-90.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit24"><label>24</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Mode of access: http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/CSPCoupsListv2016.xls</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kohli, H.A.; Mukherjee, N. Potential Costs to Asia of the Middle Income Trap // Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 2011, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 291-311.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit25"><label>25</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Cherny, R.W. American Politics in the Gilded Age: 1868-1900. N.Y.: Wiley, 1997.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.; Goldstone, J.; Zinkina, J.V. Phases of Global Demographic Transition Correlate with Phases of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015, No. 95, pp. 163-169.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit26"><label>26</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Goldstone, J. Protests in Ukraine, Thailand and Venezuela: What Unites them? // Russia Direct, 2014.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.; Grinin, L.; Bilyuga, S.; Meshcherina, K.; Shishkina, A. Economic Development, Socio-political Destabilization and Inequality // The Russian Sociological Review, 2017, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 9-35.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit27"><label>27</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Mode of access: http://www.russia-direct.org/content/protests-ukraine-thailand-and-venezuela-what-unites-them</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.; Issaev, L.; Zinkina, J. Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013-2014: A Cross-National Analysis // Cross-Cultural Research, 2015, Vol. 49, No. 5, pp. 461-488.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit28"><label>28</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Goldstone, J.A. Understanding the Revolutions of 2011: Weakness and Resilience in Middle Eastern Autocracies //Foreign Affairs, 2011, No. 90, pp. 8-16.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.; Vaskin, I.; Bilyuga, S. Gipoteza Olsona-Huntingtona o krivolineino i zavisimosti mezhdu urovnem ekonomicheskogo razvitiya i sotsial’no-politicheskoi destabilizatsiei: opyt kolichestvennogo analiza (Olson-Huntington hypothesis on a bell-shaped relationship between the level of economic development and sociopolitical destabilization: A quantitative analysis) // Sotsiologicheskoe Obozrenie – Russian Sociological Review, 2017, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 9-49.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit29"><label>29</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Grinin, L.;Korotayev, A. Great Divergence and Great Convergence. A Global Perspective. New York, NY: Springer, 2015.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.; Vaskin, I.; Bilyuga, S.; Ilyin, I. Economic Development and Sociopolitical Destabilization: a Re-Analysis // Cliodynamics, 2018, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 57-115.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit30"><label>30</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Gyimah-Brempong, K., Samaria M. de C. Corruption, Growth, and Income Distribution: Are there Regional Differences? // Economics of Governance, 2006, No. 7(3), рp. 245-269.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.; Zinkina, J. On the Structure of the Present-Day Convergence // Campus-Wide Information Systems, 2014, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 41-57.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit31"><label>31</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Hessami, Z. Political Corruption, Public Procurement, and Budget Composition: Theory and Evidence from OECD Countries // European Journal of Political Economy, 2014, No. 34, pp. 372-389.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.; Zinkina, J.; Bogevolnov, J.; Malkov, A. Global Unconditional Convergence among Larger Economies after 1998? // Journal of Globalization Studies, 2011, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 25-62.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit32"><label>32</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ionescu, L. Corruption, Unemployment, and the Global Financial Crisis // Economics, Management and Financial Markets, 2012, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 127-133.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.V.; Bilyuga, S.E.; Shishkina, A.R. Ekonomicheskii rost i sotsial’no-politicheskaya destabilizatsiya: opyt global’nogo analiza (Correlation between GDP per capita and Protest Intensity: A Quantitative Analysis) // Polis, 2017,</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit33"><label>33</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Khan, M. Governance, Economic Growth and Development since the 1960s. DESA Working Paper N. 54, 2007.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">No. 2, pp. 155-169.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit34"><label>34</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kharas, H.; Kohli, H. What Is the Middle Income Trap, Why Do Countries Fall into it, and How Can It Be Avoided // Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 2011, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 281-289.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.V.; Bilyuga, S.E.; Shishkina, A.R. VVP na dushu naseleniya, intensivnost’ antipravitel’stvennykh demonstratsii i uroven’ obrazovaniya. Kross-natsional’nyi analiz (GDP per Capita, the Intensity of Anti-Government</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit35"><label>35</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Khestanov, R. Corruption and Revolution as Structural Foundations for the Fiction of State Interest (Raison d’État) // Russian Journal of Philosophy &amp; Humanities, 2017, No. 1, pp. 73-90.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Demonstrations and Level of Education. Cross-National Analysis) // Journal of political philosophy and sociology of politics “Politiya. Analysis. Chronicle. Forecast”, 2017, No. 1(84), pp. 127-143.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit36"><label>36</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kohli, H.A.; Mukherjee, N. Potential Costs to Asia of the Middle Income Trap // Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 2011, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 291-311.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.V.; Bilyuga, S.E.; Shishkina, A.R. VVP nadushunaseleniya, uroven’ protestnoiaktivnostii tip rezhima: opytkolichestvennogoanaliza (GDP per capita, Protest Intensity and Regime Type: A Quantitative Analysis) // SravnitelnayaPolitika – Comparative Politics Russia, 2016, No. 4(26), pp. 72-94.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit37"><label>37</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Korotayev, A.; Goldstone, J.; Zinkina, J.V. Phases of Global Demographic Transition Correlate with Phases of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence // Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015, No. 95, pp. 163-169.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.V.; Grinin, L.E.; Issaev, L.M.; Bilyuga, S.E.; Vaskin, I.A.; Slinko, E.V.; Shishkina, A.R.; Meshcherina, K.V. Destabilizatsiya: global’nye, natsional’nye, prirodnye faktory i mekhanizmy (Destabilization of the Global, National, Environmental Factors, and Mechanisms). Moscow: Moskovskaya redaktsiya izdatel’stva “Uchitel’”, 2017.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit38"><label>38</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Korotayev, A.; Grinin, L.; Bilyuga, S.; Meshcherina, K.; Shishkina, A. Economic Development, Socio-political Destabilization and Inequality // The Russian Sociological Review, 2017, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 9-35.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.V.; Issaev, L.M.; Vasiliev, A.M. Kolichestvennyi analiz revolyutsionnoi volny 2013-2014 gg. (Quantitative Analysis of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013-2014) // Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya – Sociological Studies, 2015, No. 8, pp. 119-127.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit39"><label>39</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Korotayev, A.; Issaev, L.; Zinkina, J. Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013-2014: A Cross-National Analysis // Cross-Cultural Research, 2015, Vol. 49, No. 5, pp. 461-488.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Korotayev, A.V.; Khaltourina, D.A. Sovremennye tendentsii mirovogo razvitiya (Modern Trends of World Development). Moscow: URSS, 2008.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit40"><label>40</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Korotayev, A.; Vaskin, I.; Bilyuga, S.; Ilyin, I. Economic Development and Sociopolitical Destabilization: a Re-Analysis // Cliodynamics, 2018, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 57-115.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Maddison, A. Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD. Essays in Macro-Economic History. Оxford university press. 2007.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit41"><label>41</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Korotayev, A.; Zinkina, J. On the Structure of the Present-Day Convergence // Campus-Wide Information Systems, 2014, Vol. 31, No 2, pp. 41-57.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Mauro, P. Corruption and Growth // The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995, Vol. 110, No. 3, pp. 681-712.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit42"><label>42</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Korotayev, A.; Zinkina, J.; Bogevolnov, J.; Malkov, A. Global Unconditional Convergence among Larger Economies after 1998? // Journal of Globalization Studies, 2011, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 25-62.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Mauro, P. Corruption and the Composition of Government Expenditure // Journal of Public Economics, 1997, Vol. 69, No. 2, pp. 263-279.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit43"><label>43</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Maddison, A. Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD. Essays in Macro-Economic History. Оxford university press. 2007.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Minkov, M. Predictors of Societal Accident Proneness across 92 Countries // Cross-Cultural Research, 2016, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp. 103-122.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit44"><label>44</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Mauro, P. Corruption and Growth // The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995, Vol. 110, No. 3, pp. 681-712.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Njoku, C.I., Bondarenko, D.M. State Building, States, and State Transformation in Africa: Introduction. Social Evolution &amp; History, 2018, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 3-15.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit45"><label>45</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Mauro, P. Corruption and the Composition of Government Expenditure // Journal of Public Economics, 1997, Vol. 69, No. 2, pp. 263-279.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Paldam, M. The Cross-Country Pattern of Corruption: Economics, Culture and the Seesaw Dynamics // European Journal of Political Economy, 2002, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 215-240.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit46"><label>46</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Minkov, M. Predictors of Societal Accident Proneness across 92 Countries // Cross-Cultural Research, 2016, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp. 103-122.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Pritchett, L., Werker, E. Developing the guts of a GUT (Grand Unifi ed Theory): elite commitment and inclusive growth. Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series, 2012.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit47"><label>47</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Njoku, C.I., Bondarenko, D.M. State Building, States, and State Transformation in Africa: Introduction. Social Evolution &amp; History, 2018, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 3-15.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Sacerdote, B. Peer Effects with Random Assignment: Results for Dartmouth Roommates // The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2001, No. 116(2), pp. 681-704.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit48"><label>48</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Paldam, M. The Cross-Country Pattern of Corruption: Economics, Culture and the Seesaw Dynamics // European Journal of Political Economy, 2002, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 215-240.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Schneider, F. Does Corruption Promote Emigration? IZA World of Labor, 2015.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit49"><label>49</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Pritchett, L., Werker, E. Developing the guts of a GUT (Grand Unifi ed Theory): elite commitment and inclusive growth. Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series, 2012.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Tsirel, S.V. K istokam ukrainskih revoljucionnyh sobytij 2013-14 gg. (To the Sources of the Ukrainian Revolutionary Events of 2013-14), 2014. Mode of access:</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit50"><label>50</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Sacerdote, B. Peer Effects with Random Assignment: Results for Dartmouth Roommates // The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2001, No. 116(2), pp. 681-704.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">http://polit.ru/article/2014/06/08/ukraine/</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit51"><label>51</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Schneider, F. Does Corruption Promote Emigration? IZA World of Labor, 2015.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Tsirel, S.V. Revoljucionnye situacii, revoljucii i volny revoljucij: uslovija, zakonomernosti, primery (Revolutionary Situations, Revolutions and Revolutionary</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit52"><label>52</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Van Rijckeghem, C.; Weder, B. Bureaucratic Corruption and the Rate of Temptation: do Wages in the Civil Service Affect Corruption, and by How Much? // Journal of Development Economics, 2001, Vol. 65, No. 2, pp. 307-331.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Waves: Conditions, Regularities, Examples) //Ojkumena. Vyp. 8 / Nauch. red., sost. A. A. Fisun. Har’kov, 2011, pp. 174-209.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit53"><label>53</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Welzel, C.; Inglehart, R. Liberalism, Postmaterialism, and the Growth of Freedom // International Review of Sociology, 2005, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 81-108.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Van Rijckeghem, C.;Weder, B. Bureaucratic Corruption and the Rate of Temptation: do Wages in the Civil Service Affect Corruption, and by How Much? // Journal of Development Economics, 2001, Vol. 65, No. 2, pp. 307-331.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit54"><label>54</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Welzel, C.;Inglehart, R. Liberalism, Postmaterialism, and the Growth of Freedom // International Review of Sociology, 2005, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 81-108.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Welzel, C.;Inglehart, R. Liberalism, Postmaterialism, and the Growth of Freedom // International Review of Sociology, 2005, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 81-108.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit55"><label>55</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Zarabotnaya plata i korruptsiya: kakplatit’ rossiiskim chinovnikam?Analiticheskii doklad / Indem (Wages and Corruption: How to Pay Russian Bureaucrats? Analytical report. INDEM). Moscow: Indem, 2002. Mode of access: http://www.anti-corr.ru/indem/2002salary_corruption.htm</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Zarabotnaya plata i korruptsiya: kakplatit’ rossiiskim chinovnikam?Analiticheskii doklad / Indem (Wages and Corruption: How to Pay Russian Bureaucrats? Analytical report. INDEM). Moscow: Indem, 2002. Mode of access: http://www.anti-corr.ru/indem/2002salary_corruption.htm</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref></ref-list><fn-group><fn fn-type="conflict"><p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p></fn></fn-group></back></article>
