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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">comparativepolitics</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Сравнительная политика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Comparative Politics Russia</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2221-3279</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2412-4990</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Издательская группа «Юрист»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">comparativepolitics-804</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>СРАВНИТЕЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ КОНЦЕПЦИЙ И ИНСТИТУТОВ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF CONCEPTS AND INSTITUTIONS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>КОРРУПЦИЯ, ЦЕННОСТИ И ПОПЫТКИ НАСИЛЬСТВЕННЫХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЙ ВЛАСТИ В СТРАНАХ С РАЗЛИЧНЫМ УРОВНЕМ ВВП НА ДУШУ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ: ОПЫТ КОЛИЧЕСТВЕННОГО АНАЛИЗА</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title></trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3014-2037</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Коротаев</surname><given-names>Андрей Витальевич</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">akorotayev@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Цирель</surname><given-names>Сергей Вадимович</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">tsirel58@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Билюга</surname><given-names>Станислав Эдуардович</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">sbilyuga@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff xml:lang="ru" id="aff-1"><institution>Национальный исследовательский университет "Высшая школа экономики", Институт Африки РАН</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><aff xml:lang="ru" id="aff-2"><institution>Санкт-Петербургский горный университет, НЦ геомеханики и проблем горного производства</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><aff xml:lang="ru" id="aff-3"><institution>Национальный исследовательский университет "Высшая школа экономики"</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2019</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>18</day><month>04</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>10</volume><issue>1</issue><issue-title>В номере "Информационно-правовая политика"</issue-title><elocation-id>804</elocation-id><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Коротаев А.В., Цирель С.В., Билюга С.Э., 2018</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2018</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Коротаев А.В., Цирель С.В., Билюга С.Э.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Коротаев А.В., Цирель С.В., Билюга С.Э.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.sravpol.ru/jour/article/view/804">https://www.sravpol.ru/jour/article/view/804</self-uri><abstract><p>Показано, что частота переворотов и попыток переворотов примерно в равной степени связана как с уровнем коррумпированности, так и с уровнем подушевого ВВП, причем  в отношении попыток свержения центральной власти влияние уровня ВВП  на душу населения оказывается немного сильнее, а в отношении свержения всех органов власти в совокупности, как центральных, так и местных, степень коррумпированности оказывает большее воздействие. При этом оба показателя находятся в тесной связи между собой, однако скорость роста ВВП не имеет устойчивой корреляции с коррупцией и слабо коррелирована с частотой попыток насильственного свержения органов государственной власти. Уровень коррумпированности оказывает тройное влияние на устойчивость развития - существенно увеличивает разброс траекторий экономических трансформаций; даже в успешно развивающихся коррумпированных странах темпы развития носят, как правило, неравномерный характер, быстрый рост чередуется остановками развития и глубокими кризисами; для коррумпированных стран характерна неравномерность политического и экономического состояния отдельных регионов, наличие регионов с весьма неустойчивой властью. Именно это тройное влияние коррумпированности на предсказуемость и устойчивость экономической и политической конъюнктуры обуславливает частоту попыток государственных переворотов в коррумпированных странах низкого и среднего уровня экономического развития. Полученные зависимости сложным образом связаны с ценностными представлениями.  В группе развитых стран с уровнем восприятия коррупции от 60 баллов и выше наблюдается существенная положительная корреляция между некоррумпированостью и ценностями самовыражения. В остальных странах ценности не оказывают влияния на уровень коррумпированности, зато  влияют на темпы экономического роста и частоту попыток свержения власти. Проведенное исследование показало, что при равных уровнях коррумпированности в странах низкого и среднего уровня экономического развития для устойчивости власти и быстрого экономического роста полезен отказ от традиционализма и вреден слишком ранний переход к ценностям самовыражения. Однако переход через рубеж подушевого ВВП 20-25 тыс. долл. в год затруднителен, если не сопровождается повышением уровня восприятия коррупции до 50-60 баллов и более. Есть основания предполагать, что современная Россия с подушевым ВВП около 25 тыс. долл. в год и уровнем восприятия коррупции менее 30 баллов, может находиться именно в такой ситуации.</p></abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>политическая стабильность</kwd><kwd>сравнительные исследования</kwd><kwd>ценности</kwd><kwd>государственные перевороты</kwd><kwd>ловушка средних доходов</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">РФФИ</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Асанбеков М.К. Коррупция - мать революций // Время Востока. 07.01.2012. [Электронный ресурс]. URL: http://www.easttime.ru/analitic/2/4/1033.html (дата обращения: 04.08.2017).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Асанбеков М.К. Коррупция - мать революций // Время Востока. 07.01.2012. [Электронный ресурс]. 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