comparativepoliticsСравнительная политикаComparative Politics Russia2221-32792412-4990Издательская группа «Юрист»10.18611/2221-3279-2017-8-4-113-126comparativepolitics-742Research ArticleСРАВНИТЕЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ ЛОКАЛЬНОГО ОПЫТАCOMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF LOCAL CASESАрабская весна и ее глобальное эхо: количественный анализSpring and Its Global Echo: Quantitative AnalysisКоротаевА. В.KorotayevA. V.

доктор философии (PhD), д.и.н., профессор, заведующий лабораторией мониторинга рисков социально- политической дестабилизации, НИУ ВШЭ; ведущий научный сотрудник, Институт востоковедения РАН

PhD in Philosophy, Dr. of History, Professor, Head of the Socio-Political Destabilization Risk Monitoring Laboratory, National Research University “Higher School of Economics”; Leading Researcher, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences

akorotayev@gmail.comМещеринаК. В.MeshcherinaK. V.

младший научный сотрудник, Лаборатория мониторинга рисков социально-политической дестабилизации, НИУ ВШЭ; младший научный сотрудник, Институт Африки РАН

Junior Research Fellow, Laboratory of Monitoring of Risks of Sociopolitical Destabilization, National Research University Higher School of Economics; Junior Research Fellow, Centre for Global and Strategic Studies, The Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences

k.meshcherina@hotmail.comКуликоваЕ. Д.KulikovaE. D.

стажер-исследователь, Лаборатория мониторинга рисков социально-политической дестабилизации, НИУ ВШЭ

Research Assistant, Laboratory of Monitoring of Risks of Sociopolitical Destabilization, National Research University Higher School of Economics

katerina.kulikova.97@inbox.ruДельяновВ. Г.DelyanovV. G.

стажер-исследователь, Лаборатория мониторинга рисков социально-политической дестабилизации, НИУ ВШЭ

Research Assistant, Laboratory of Monitoring of Risks of Sociopolitical Destabilization, National Research University Higher School of Economics

vasilaki.97@mail.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», Институт востоковедения РАН, МоскваРоссияNational Research University Higher School of Economics, Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, MoscowRussian FederationНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», Институт Африки РАН, МоскваРоссияNational Research University Higher School of Economics, Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, MoscowRussian FederationНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», МоскваРоссияNational Research University Higher School of Economics, MoscowRussian Federation20172212201784113126Copyright © Коротаев А.В., Мещерина К.В., Куликова Е.Д., Дельянов В.Г., 20172017Коротаев А.В., Мещерина К.В., Куликова Е.Д., Дельянов В.Г.Korotayev A.V., Meshcherina K.V., Kulikova E.D., Delyanov V.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.sravpol.ru/jour/article/view/742

В статье исследуется рост социально- политической нестабильности в мире после начала Арабской весны. Показано, что события в арабском мире выступили в качестве триггера глобальной волны социально-политической дестабилизации, значительно превысившей масштабы самой Арабской весны и затронувшей абсолютно все мир-системные зоны. Однако проявилась эта дестабилизационная волна в других макрозонах по- разному и не вполне синхронно. Авторы исследуют масштабы глобального эха Арабской весны на основе четырех показателей дестабилизации международной базs данных Cross-National Time Series (CNTS) – антиправительственные демонстрации, массовые беспорядки, политические забастовки, террористические акты / «партизанские действия», систематически сравнивая данные по этим показателям в арабских странах и в остальном мире. При этом общая динамика дестабилизационных процессов рассматривается за более продолжительный период – с 1920 по 2015 гг.

It is shown that the Arab Spring acted as a trigger for a global wave of socio-political destabilization, which signifi cantly exceeded the scale of the Arab Spring itself and affected absolutely all world-system zones. Only in 2011 the growth of the global number of largescale anti-government demonstrations, riots and political strikes was to a high degree (although not entirely) due to their growth in the Arab world. In the ensuing years, the Arab countries rather made a negative contribution to a very noticeable further increase in the global number of large-scale anti-government demonstrations, riots and general strikes (the global intensity of all these three important types of socio-political destabilization continued to grow despite the decline in the Arab world). Thus, for all these three important indicators of sociopolitical destabilization, the scale of the global echo of the Arab Spring has overshadowed the scale of the Arab Spring itself. Only as regards the fourth considered indicator (major terrorist attacks / guerrilla warfare) the scale of the global echo for the entire period considered did not overshadow the scale of the Arab Spring (and, incidentally, «Winter») - and in 2014-2015 Arab countries continued to make a disproportionate contribution to the historically record global values of this sad indicator – global number of major terrorist attacks/ guerilla warfare. To conclude, triggered by the Arab Spring, the global wave of socio-political destabilization led after 2010 to a very signifi cant growth of socio-political instability in absolutely all World System zones. However, this global destabilization wave manifested itself in different World System zones in different ways and not completely synchronously.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.