comparativepoliticsСравнительная политикаComparative Politics Russia2221-32792412-4990Издательская группа «Юрист»10.18611/2221-3279-2017-8-4-95-112comparativepolitics-741Research ArticleСРАВНИТЕЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ ЛОКАЛЬНОГО ОПЫТАCOMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF LOCAL CASESТип режима и индексы социально- политической нестабильности: опыт количественного анализаThe Type of Regime and Indices of Socio-Political Instability: The Experience of Quantitative AnalysisБилюгаС. Э.BilyugaS. E.

младший научный сотрудник, Научно-учебная лаборатория мониторинга рисков социально- политической дестабилизации, НИУ ВШЭ; аспирант, Факультет глобальных процессов, МГУ им. М.В. Ломоносова; младший научный сотрудник, Центр Долгосрочного Прогнозирования и Стратегического Планирования, ФГП МГУ

Junior Researcher, the Scientifi c and Training Laboratory for Monitoring the Risks of Socio-Political Destabilization, Higher School of Economics; Postgraduate student, the Faculty of Global Processes, Lomonosov Moscow State University; Junior Researcher, the Center for Long-Term Forecasting and Strategic Planning, Moscow State University

sbilyuga@gmail.comНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономии», МоскваРоссияNational Research University Higher School of Economics, MoscowRussian Federation2017221220178495112Copyright © Билюга С.Э., 20172017Билюга С.Э.Bilyuga S.E.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.sravpol.ru/jour/article/view/741

В статье приводится анализ зависимостей между отдельными индексами дестабилизации, собираемыми CNTS, и типами режимов (по Freedom House) с 1973 по 2012. Рассмотрение и анализ проводится через призму четырех этапов времени: 1) 1973–2012; 2) 1973–1991: 2.1) 1973–1989; 2.2) 1973–1991; 3) 1992– 2010; 4) 2011–2012.

The article provides an analysis of the dependencies between the individual indexes destabilization of the collected CNTS, and types of regimes (“Freedom House”) from 1973 to 2012. Review and analysis is conducted through the prism of four stages of time: 1) 1973-2012; 2) 1973-1991: 2.1) 1973- 1989; 2.2) 1973-1991; 3) 1992-2010; 4) 2011- 2012.

моделирование дестабилизацийпрогнозирование нестабильноститипы политийиндексы дестабилизацииmodeling instabilitiesinstability forecastingtypes of politiesdestabilization indicesReferencesГринин Л.Е, Коротаев А.В. Революция vs демократия // Полис. – 2014. – № 3. – С. 139–158.Banks, Arthur S.; Wilson Kenneth A. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive / Databanks International. Jerusalem, Israel. Mode of access: http://www. databanksinternational.comГринин Л.Е, Коротаев А.В. Циклы, кризисы, ловушки современной Мир-Системы. Исследование кондратьевских, жюгляровских и вековых циклов, глобальных кризисов, мальтузианских и постмальтузианских ловушек. – М.: Издательство ЛКИ/URSS, 2012.Freedom House. Freedom in the World. Mode of access: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world-2015/methodology#.VeVBePntmkoКоротаев А.В., Билюга С.Э., Зинькина Ю.В. Цены на нефть как фактор социально-политической дестабилизации государств в современном мире: опыт количественного анализа // Политическая наука. – 2016. – №4. – С. 159–185.Gates, Scott; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark P., Strand, Håvard. Institutional consistency and Political Instability: Persistence and Change in Political Systems Revisited, 1800-1998. Presented at the annual meeting of American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., 2000.Коротаев А.В., Билюга С.Э., Шишкина А.Р. ВВП на душу населения, уровень протестной активности и тип режима: опыт количественного анализа // Сравнительная политика. – 2016. – № 4. – С. 72–94.Goldstone, Jack A.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Gurr, David L.; Marshall, Monty G.; Lustik, Michael B.; Woodward, Mark; Ulfelder, Jay. A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability // American Journal of Political Science, 2010, No.1, pp. 190-208.Коротаев А.В., Билюга С.Э., Шишкина А.Р. Экономический рост и социально-политическая дестабилизация: опыт глобального анализа // Полис. Политические исследования. – 2017. – № 2. – С. 155-169.Goldstone, Jack A.; Gurr, Ted Robert; Harff, Barbara; Levy, Marc A.; Marshall, Monty G.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Kahl, Colin H.; Surko, Pamela T.; Ulfelder, Jay; Unger, John C.; Unger, Alan N. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase III Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), 2000. Mode of access: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/stfail/.Коротаев А.В., Исаев Л.М., Васильев А.М. Количественный анализ революционной волны 2013– 2014 гг. // Социологические исследования. – 2015. – № 8. – С. 119–127.Grinin, L.E.; Korotayev, A.V. Revolyutsiya vs demokratiya (Revolution vs Democracy) // Polis, 2014, No. 3, pp. 139-158.Коротаев А.К., Васькин И.А., Билюга С.Э. Гипотеза Олсона-Хантингтона о криволинейной зависимости между уровнем экономического развития и социально-политической дестабилизацией: опыт количественного анализа // Социологическое обозрение. – 2017. – № 1. – С. 9–49.Grinin, L.E.; Korotayev, A.V. Tsikly, krizisy, lovushki sovremennoj Mir-Sistemy (Cycles, Crises and Traps of Contemporary World-System). Issledovanie kondrat’evskikh, zhyuglyarovskikh i vekovykh tsiklov, global’nykh krizisov, mal’tuzianskikh i postmal’tuzianskikh lovushek. Moscow: Izdatel’stvo LKI/URSS, 2012.Малков С.Ю.; Коротаев А.В.; Исаев Л.М.; Кузьминова Е.В. О методике оценки текущего состояния и прогноза социальной нестабильности: опыт количественного анализа событий Арабской весны // Полис. Политические исследования. – 2013. – № 4. – С. 137–162.Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Does “Arab Spring” Mean the Beginning of World System Reconfi guration? // World Futures, 2012, Vol. 68/7, pp. 471-505.Banks, Arthur S.; Wilson Kenneth A. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive / Databanks International. Jerusalem, Israel. Mode of access: http://www. databanksinternational.comGrinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Revolution and Democracy in the Context of the Globalization. In The Dialectics of Modernity – Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Editor: Endre Kiss. Arisztotelész Kiadó (Publisherhouse Arostotelész). Budapest, 2014.Freedom House. Freedom in the World. Mode of access: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world-2015/methodology#.VeVBePntmkoKorotaev, A.K.; Vas’kin, I.A.; Biliuga, S.E. Gipoteza Olsona-Khantingtona o krivolineinoi zavisimosti mezhdu urovnem ekonomicheskogo razvitiia i sotsial’no-politicheskoi destabilizatsiei: opyt kolichestvennogo analiza (Hypothesis of Olson-Huntington about a Curvilinear Relationship between the Level of Economic Development and Socio-Political Destabilization: Experience in Quantitative Analysis) // Sociological Review, 2017, No. 1, pp. 9-49.Gates, Scott; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark P., Strand, Håvard. Institutional consistency and Political Instability: Persistence and Change in Political Systems Revisited, 1800-1998. Presented at the annual meeting of American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., 2000.Korotaev, A.V.; Biliuga, S.E.; Shishkina, A.R. Ekonomicheskii rost i sotsial’no-politicheskaia destabilizatsiia: opyt global’nogo analiza (Economic Growth and Socio-Political Destabilization: the Experience of Global Analysis) // Polis. Political Studies, 2017, No. 2, pp. 155-169.Goldstone, Jack A.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Gurr, David L.; Marshall, Monty G.; Lustik, Michael B.; Woodward, Mark; Ulfelder, Jay. A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability // American Journal of Political Science, 2010, No.1, pp. 190-208.Korotaev, A.V.; Biliuga, S.E.; Shishkina, A.R. VVP na dushu naseleniia, uroven’ protestnoi aktivnosti i tip rezhima: opyt kolichestvennogo analiza [GDP per Capita, the Level of Protest Activity and Mode Type: Experience in Quantitative Analysis] // Comparative Politics, 2016, No. 4 (25), pp. 72-94.Goldstone, Jack A.; Gurr, Ted Robert; Harff, Barbara; Levy, Marc A.; Marshall, Monty G.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Kahl, Colin H.; Surko, Pamela T.; Ulfelder, Jay; Unger, John C.; Unger, Alan N. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase III Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), 2000. Mode of access: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/stfail/Korotaev, A.V.; Biliuga, S.E.; Zin’kina, Iu.V. Tseny na neft’ kak faktor sotsial’no-politicheskoi destabilizatsii gosudarstv v sovremennom mire: opyt kolichestvennogo analiza (Oil Prices as a Factor of Socio-Political Destabilization of States in the Modern World: Experience of Quantitative Analysis) // Political Science, 2016, No. 4, pp. 159-185.Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Does “Arab Spring” Mean the Beginning of World System Reconfi guration? // World Futures, 2012, Vol. 68/7, pp. 471-505.Korotayev, A.V.; Isaev, L.M.; Vasil’ev, A.M. Kolichest vennyj analiz revolyutsionnoj volny 2013–2014 gg. (Quantitative Analysis of Revolutionary Wave 2013-2014) // Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya, 2015, No. 8 (376), pp. 119-127.Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Revolution and Democracy in the Context of the Globalization. In The Dialectics of Modernity – Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Editor: Endre Kiss. Arisztotelész Kiadó (Publisherhouse Arostotelész). Budapest, 2014.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. Developing the Methods of Estimation and Forecasting the Arab Spring // Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 2013, Vol. 7 (4), pp. 28-58.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. Developing the Methods of Estimation and Forecasting the Arab Spring // Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 2013, Vol. 7 (4), pp. 28-58.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. The Arab Spring: A Quantitative Analysis // Arab Studies Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 36 (2), pp. 149-169.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. The Arab Spring: A Quantitative Analysis // Arab Studies Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 36 (2), pp. 149-169.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Zinkina, Julia. Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013–2014: A Cross–National analysis // Cross–Cultural Research, 2015, Vol. 49 (5), pp. 461-488.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Zinkina, Julia. Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013–2014: A Cross–National analysis // Cross–Cultural Research, 2015, Vol. 49 (5), pp. 461-488.Malkov, S.Yu.; Korotayev, A.V.; Isaev, L.M.; Kuz’minova, E.V. O metodike otsenki tekuschego sostoyaniya i prognoza sotsial’noj nestabil’nosti: opyt kolichest vennogo analiza sobytij Arabskoj vesny (On Analysis Methodology of Current Social Instability: Arab Spring Case) // Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniya, 2013, No. 4, pp. 137-162.Mansfield, Edward D.; Snyder, Jack. Democratization and the Danger of War // International Security, 1995, Vol. 20 (1), pp. 5-38.Mansfi eld, Edward D.; Snyder, Jack. Democratization and the Danger of War // International Security, 1995, Vol. 20 (1), pp. 5-38.Marshall, Monty G.; Cole, Benjamin R. A Macro Comparative Analysis of the Problem of Factionalism in Emerging Democracies. Paper presented at the 2008 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.Marshall, Monty G.; Cole, Benjamin R. A Macro Comparative Analysis of the Problem of Factionalism in Emerging Democracies. Paper presented at the 2008 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.Ulfelder, Jay; Lustik, Michael. Modeling Transitions to and from Democracy // Democratization, 2007, Vol. 14 (April), pp. 351-387.Ulfelder, Jay; Lustik, Michael. Modeling Transitions to and from Democracy // Democratization, 2007, Vol. 14 (April), pp. 351-387.Vreeland, James R. The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War // Journal of Confl ict Resolution, 2008, Vol. 52(3), pp. 401-425.Vreeland, James R. The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War // Journal of Confl ict Resolution, 2008, Vol. 52(3), pp. 401-425.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.