comparativepoliticsСравнительная политикаComparative Politics Russia2221-32792412-4990Издательская группа «Юрист»10.18611/2221-3279-2017-8-4-60-72comparativepolitics-738Research ArticleСРАВНИТЕЛЬНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА И ГЕОПОЛИТИКАCOMPARATIVE POLITICS AND GEOPOLITICSАнализируя ситуацию вокруг «АфПак»: от снижения активности США к росту включенности РоссииReading the Af-Pak Narrative, from the US Disengagement to Russian Re-EngagementДакаА.DhakaA.

доцент, Школа международных исследований

Associate Professor, School of International Studies

ambijat@mail.ruУниверситет Джавахарлала Неру, Нью-ДелиИндияJawaharlal Nehru University, New DelhiIndia201721122017846072Copyright © Дака А., 20172017Дака А.Dhaka A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.sravpol.ru/jour/article/view/738

США приняли решение о продлении срока пребывания своего контингента в Афганистане, в то время как ситуация в сфере безопасности в стране не улучшается. Нескончаемый спрос на ресурсы, необходимые для поддержания военных операций против повстанцев, стал главным предметом дискуссий во время предвыборной гонки США в 2016 году, когда звучали призывы ко скорейшему выводу контингента США из Афганистана, чтобы сохранить более трех триллионов долларов. В России, в связи с осознанием ослабления роли США в регионе, возросли опасения относительно ситуации в Афганистане после вывода войск США, учитывая активность движения Талибан и его спонсоров в Пакистане. Россия уже ощутила на себе все тяжелые последствия исламизации в Центральной Азии и на Кавказе, деятельности ИГИЛ, всего, что ведет к дестабилизации ситуации в государствах центральноазиатского региона. Находящиеся в Афганистане и Пакистане боевики ИГИЛ относятся к ответвлению Хорасан. Пакистан же необходим России для оказания сопротивления присутствию ИГИЛ на южных рубежах страны. Однако геополитическая ситуация в регионе осложняется целым рядом взаимосвязанных проблем безопасности, одним из которых является так называемый «АфПак». До настоящего времени политика России в отношении движения Талибан могла представлять собой некий неиспользованный инструмент для установления баланса сил на протяжении всего «пояса нестабильности».

The US has prolonged its stay in Afghanistan with the security situation remaining far from improving. The indefatigable demand for resources to maintain counter-insurgency operations was a major debate in 2016 US Presidential elections with a demand for an earlier withdrawal from America’s trillion dollars plus war effort. Russians having sensed the weakening of the US infl uence warmed upto the idea of new Afghan situation involving Taliban and their masters, the Pakistan army. Russia had experienced vulnerabilities of Islamisation in Central Asia and Caucasus, and the ISIS brand radicalisation added to the fear of political destabilisation of Central Asian states. The Islamic State showed up in Afghanistan and Pakistan as ISIS-Khorasan branch. Russia needed Pakistan as an ally to fi ght Daesh’s presence on its southern periphery. However, there remained many intertwined security challenges that complicate the South Asian geopolitics, especially, the Af-Pak region. Russia’s Taliban policy might be the hitherto unused leverage that it might be using in order to strike balance all along the shatter belt.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.