comparativepoliticsСравнительная политикаComparative Politics Russia2221-32792412-4990Издательская группа «Юрист»comparativepolitics-689Research ArticleСтатьиТип режима и индексы социально-политической нестабильности: опыт количественного анализаБилюгаСтанислав Эдуардович

младший научный сотрудник

sbilyuga@gmail.comНаучно-учебная лаборатория мониторинга рисков социально-политической дестабилизации НИУ ВШЭRussian Federation20173003202084689Copyright © Билюга С.Э., 20172017Билюга С.Э.Билюга С.Э.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.sravpol.ru/jour/article/view/689

В статье приводится анализ зависимостей между отдельными индексами дестабилизации, собираемыми CNTS, и типами режимов (по Freedom House) с 1973 по 2012. Рассмотрение и анализ проводится через призму четырех этапов времени: 1) 1973-2012; 2) 1973-1991: 2.1) 1973-1989; 2.2) 1973-1991; 3) 1992 – 2010; 4) 2011 – 2012.

Работа выполнена при поддержке РФФИ (проект № 15-06-03655).

моделирование дестабилизацийпрогнозирование нестабильноститипы политийиндексы дестабилизацииReferencesГринин Л.Е, Коротаев А.В. Циклы, кризисы, ловушки современной Мир-Системы. Исследование кондратьевских, жюгляровских и вековых циклов, глобальных кризисов, мальтузианских и постмальтузианских ловушек. М.: Издательство ЛКИ/URSS, 2012.Гринин Л.Е, Коротаев А.В. Циклы, кризисы, ловушки современной Мир-Системы. Исследование кондратьевских, жюгляровских и вековых циклов, глобальных кризисов, мальтузианских и постмальтузианских ловушек. М.: Издательство ЛКИ/URSS, 2012.Гринин Л.Е, Коротаев А.В. Революция vs демократия // Полис. 2014. №3. – С. 139-158.Гринин Л.Е, Коротаев А.В. Революция vs демократия // Полис. 2014. №3. – С. 139-158.Коротаев А.В., Исаев Л.М., Васильев А.М. Количественный анализ революционной волны 2013-2014 гг. // Социологические исследования. 2015. № 8. – С. 119–127.Коротаев А.В., Исаев Л.М., Васильев А.М. Количественный анализ революционной волны 2013-2014 гг. // Социологические исследования. 2015. № 8. – С. 119–127.Малков С.Ю., Коротаев А.В., Исаев Л.М., Кузьминова Е.В. О методике оценки текущего состояния и прогноза социальной нестабильности: опыт количественного анализа событий Арабской весны // Полис. Политические исследования. 2013. № 4. – С. 137-162.Малков С.Ю., Коротаев А.В., Исаев Л.М., Кузьминова Е.В. О методике оценки текущего состояния и прогноза социальной нестабильности: опыт количественного анализа событий Арабской весны // Полис. Политические исследования. 2013. № 4. – С. 137-162.Banks, Arthur S.; Wilson Kenneth A. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive / Databanks International. Jerusalem, Israel. Mode of access: http://www.databanksinternational.com.Banks, Arthur S.; Wilson Kenneth A. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive / Databanks International. Jerusalem, Israel. Mode of access: http://www.databanksinternational.com.Freedom House. Freedom in the World. Mode of access: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world-2015/methodology#.VeVBePntmko.Freedom House. Freedom in the World. Mode of access: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world-2015/methodology#.VeVBePntmko.Gates, Scott; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark P., Strand, Håvard. Institutional consistency and Political Instability: Persistence and Change in Political Systems Revisited, 1800-1998. Presented at the annual meeting of American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., 2000.Gates, Scott; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark P., Strand, Håvard. Institutional consistency and Political Instability: Persistence and Change in Political Systems Revisited, 1800-1998. Presented at the annual meeting of American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., 2000.Goldstone, Jack A.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Gurr, David L.; Marshall, Monty G.; Lustik, Michael B.; Woodward, Mark; Ulfelder, Jay. A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability // American Journal of Political Science, 2010, Т. 54, No.1, pp. 190-208.Goldstone, Jack A.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Gurr, David L.; Marshall, Monty G.; Lustik, Michael B.; Woodward, Mark; Ulfelder, Jay. A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability // American Journal of Political Science, 2010, Т. 54, No.1, pp. 190-208.Goldstone, Jack A.; Gurr, Ted Robert; Harff, Barbara; Levy, Marc A.; Marshall, Monty G.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Kahl, Colin H.; Surko, Pamela T.; Ulfelder, Jay; Unger, John C.; Unger, Alan N. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase III Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), 2000. Mode of access: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/stfail/.Goldstone, Jack A.; Gurr, Ted Robert; Harff, Barbara; Levy, Marc A.; Marshall, Monty G.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Kahl, Colin H.; Surko, Pamela T.; Ulfelder, Jay; Unger, John C.; Unger, Alan N. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase III Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), 2000. Mode of access: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/stfail/.Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Does “Arab Spring” Mean the Beginning of World System Reconfi guration? // World Futures, 2012, Vol. 68/7, pp. 471-505.Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Does “Arab Spring” Mean the Beginning of World System Reconfi guration? // World Futures, 2012, Vol. 68/7, pp. 471-505.Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Revolution and Democracy in the Context of the Globalization. In The Dialectics of Modernity – Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Editor: Endre Kiss. Arisztotelész Kiadó (Publisherhouse Arostotelész). Budapest, 2014.Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Revolution and Democracy in the Context of the Globalization. In The Dialectics of Modernity – Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Editor: Endre Kiss. Arisztotelész Kiadó (Publisherhouse Arostotelész). Budapest, 2014.Gurr, Ted Robert. Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800-1971 // American Political Science, 1974, Vol. 68 (December), pp. 1482-1504.Gurr, Ted Robert. Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800-1971 // American Political Science, 1974, Vol. 68 (December), pp. 1482-1504.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. Developing the Methods of Estimation and Forecasting the Arab Spring // Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 2013, Vol. 7 (4), pp. 28-58.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. Developing the Methods of Estimation and Forecasting the Arab Spring // Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 2013, Vol. 7 (4), pp. 28-58.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. The Arab Spring: A Quantitative Analysis // Arab Studies Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 36 (2), pp. 149-169.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. The Arab Spring: A Quantitative Analysis // Arab Studies Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 36 (2), pp. 149-169.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Zinkina, Julia. Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013–2014: A Cross–National analysis // Cross–Cultural Research, 2015, Vol. 49 (5), pp. 461-488.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Zinkina, Julia. Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013–2014: A Cross–National analysis // Cross–Cultural Research, 2015, Vol. 49 (5), pp. 461-488.Mansfi eld, Edward D.; Snyder, Jack. Democratization and the Danger of War // International Security, 1995, Vol. 20 (1), pp. 5-38.Mansfi eld, Edward D.; Snyder, Jack. Democratization and the Danger of War // International Security, 1995, Vol. 20 (1), pp. 5-38.Marshall, Monty G.; Cole, Benjamin R. A MacroComparative Analysis of the Problem of Factionalism in Emerging Democracies. Paper presented at the 2008 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.Marshall, Monty G.; Cole, Benjamin R. A MacroComparative Analysis of the Problem of Factionalism in Emerging Democracies. Paper presented at the 2008 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.Ulfelder, Jay; Lustik, Michael. Modeling Transitions to and from Democracy // Democratization, 2007, Vol. 14 (April), pp. 351-387.Ulfelder, Jay; Lustik, Michael. Modeling Transitions to and from Democracy // Democratization, 2007, Vol. 14 (April), pp. 351-387.Vreeland, James R. The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War // Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2008, Vol. 52(3), pp. 401-425.Vreeland, James R. The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War // Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2008, Vol. 52(3), pp. 401-425.ReferencesReferencesBanks, Arthur S.; Wilson Kenneth A. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive / Databanks International. Jerusalem, Israel. Mode of access: http://www.databanksinternational.com.Banks, Arthur S.; Wilson Kenneth A. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive / Databanks International. Jerusalem, Israel. Mode of access: http://www.databanksinternational.com.Freedom House. Freedom in the World. Mode of access: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world-2015/methodology#.VeVBePntmko.Freedom House. Freedom in the World. Mode of access: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world-2015/methodology#.VeVBePntmko.Gates, Scott; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark P., Strand, Håvard. Institutional consistency and Political Instability: Persistence and Change in Political Systems Revisited, 1800-1998. Presented at the annual meeting of American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., 2000.Gates, Scott; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark P., Strand, Håvard. Institutional consistency and Political Instability: Persistence and Change in Political Systems Revisited, 1800-1998. Presented at the annual meeting of American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., 2000.Goldstone, Jack A.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Gurr, David L.; Marshall, Monty G.; Lustik, Michael B.; Woodward, Mark; Ulfelder, Jay. A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability // American Journal of Political Science, 2010, Т. 54, No.1, pp. 190-208.Goldstone, Jack A.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Gurr, David L.; Marshall, Monty G.; Lustik, Michael B.; Woodward, Mark; Ulfelder, Jay. A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability // American Journal of Political Science, 2010, Т. 54, No.1, pp. 190-208.Goldstone, Jack A.; Gurr, Ted Robert; Harff, Barbara; Levy, Marc A.; Marshall, Monty G.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Kahl, Colin H.; Surko, Pamela T.; Ulfelder, Jay; Unger, John C.; Unger, Alan N. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase III Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), 2000. Mode of access: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/stfail/.Goldstone, Jack A.; Gurr, Ted Robert; Harff, Barbara; Levy, Marc A.; Marshall, Monty G.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Kahl, Colin H.; Surko, Pamela T.; Ulfelder, Jay; Unger, John C.; Unger, Alan N. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase III Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), 2000. Mode of access: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/stfail/.Grinin, L.E.; Korotayev, A.V. Tsikly, krizisy, lovushki sovremennoj Mir-Sistemy (Cycles, Crises and Traps of Contemporary World-System). Issledovanie kondrat’evskikh, zhyuglyarovskikh i vekovykh tsiklov, global’nykh krizisov, mal’tuzianskikh i postmal’tuzianskikh lovushek. Moscow: Izdatel’stvo LKI/URSS, 2012.Grinin, L.E.; Korotayev, A.V. Tsikly, krizisy, lovushki sovremennoj Mir-Sistemy (Cycles, Crises and Traps of Contemporary World-System). Issledovanie kondrat’evskikh, zhyuglyarovskikh i vekovykh tsiklov, global’nykh krizisov, mal’tuzianskikh i postmal’tuzianskikh lovushek. Moscow: Izdatel’stvo LKI/URSS, 2012.Grinin, L.E.; Korotayev, A.V. Revolyutsiya vs demokratiya (Revolution vs Democracy) // Polis, 2014, No.3, pp. 139-158Grinin, L.E.; Korotayev, A.V. Revolyutsiya vs demokratiya (Revolution vs Democracy) // Polis, 2014, No.3, pp. 139-158Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Does “Arab Spring” Mean the Beginning of World System Reconfi guration? // World Futures, 2012, Vol. 68/7, pp. 471-505.Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Does “Arab Spring” Mean the Beginning of World System Reconfi guration? // World Futures, 2012, Vol. 68/7, pp. 471-505.Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Revolution and Democracy in the Context of the Globalization. In The Dialectics of Modernity – Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Editor: Endre Kiss. Arisztotelész Kiadó (Publisherhouse Arostotelész). Budapest, 2014.Grinin, Leonid; Korotayev, Andrey. Revolution and Democracy in the Context of the Globalization. In The Dialectics of Modernity – Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Editor: Endre Kiss. Arisztotelész Kiadó (Publisherhouse Arostotelész). Budapest, 2014.Gurr, Ted Robert. Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800-1971 // American Political Science, 1974, Vol. 68 (December), pp. 1482-1504.Gurr, Ted Robert. Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800-1971 // American Political Science, 1974, Vol. 68 (December), pp. 1482-1504.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. Developing the Methods of Estimation and Forecasting the Arab Spring // Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 2013, Vol. 7 (4), pp. 28-58.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. Developing the Methods of Estimation and Forecasting the Arab Spring // Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 2013, Vol. 7 (4), pp. 28-58.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. The Arab Spring: A Quantitative Analysis // Arab Studies Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 36 (2), pp. 149-169.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Malkov, Sergey Y.; Shishkina, Alisa R. The Arab Spring: A Quantitative Analysis // Arab Studies Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 36 (2), pp. 149-169.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Zinkina, Julia. Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013–2014: A Cross–National analysis // Cross–Cultural Research, 2015, Vol. 49 (5), pp. 461-488.Korotayev, Andrey V.; Issaev, Leonid M.; Zinkina, Julia. Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013–2014: A Cross–National analysis // Cross–Cultural Research, 2015, Vol. 49 (5), pp. 461-488.Korotayev, A.V.; Isaev, L.M.; Vasil’ev, A.M. Kolichest vennyj analiz revolyutsionnoj volny 2013–2014 gg. (Quantitative Analysis of Revolutionary Wave 2013- 2014) // Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya, 2015, No.8 (376), pp. 119-127.Korotayev, A.V.; Isaev, L.M.; Vasil’ev, A.M. Kolichest vennyj analiz revolyutsionnoj volny 2013–2014 gg. (Quantitative Analysis of Revolutionary Wave 2013- 2014) // Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya, 2015, No.8 (376), pp. 119-127.Malkov, S.Yu.; Korotayev, A.V.; Isaev, L.M.; Kuz’minova, E.V. O metodike otsenki tekuschego sostoyaniya i prognoza sotsial’noj nestabil’nosti: opyt kolichest vennogo analiza sobytij Arabskoj vesny (On Analysis Methodology of Current Social Instability: Arab Spring Case) // Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniya, 2013, No.4, pp. 137-162.Malkov, S.Yu.; Korotayev, A.V.; Isaev, L.M.; Kuz’minova, E.V. O metodike otsenki tekuschego sostoyaniya i prognoza sotsial’noj nestabil’nosti: opyt kolichest vennogo analiza sobytij Arabskoj vesny (On Analysis Methodology of Current Social Instability: Arab Spring Case) // Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniya, 2013, No.4, pp. 137-162.Mansfi eld, Edward D.; Snyder, Jack. Democratization and the Danger of War // International Security, 1995, Vol. 20 (1), pp. 5-38.Mansfi eld, Edward D.; Snyder, Jack. Democratization and the Danger of War // International Security, 1995, Vol. 20 (1), pp. 5-38.Marshall, Monty G.; Cole, Benjamin R. A MacroComparative Analysis of the Problem of Factionalism in Emerging Democracies. Paper presented at the 2008 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.Marshall, Monty G.; Cole, Benjamin R. A MacroComparative Analysis of the Problem of Factionalism in Emerging Democracies. Paper presented at the 2008 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.Ulfelder, Jay; Lustik, Michael. Modeling Transitions to and from Democracy // Democratization, 2007, Vol. 14 (April), pp. 351-387.Ulfelder, Jay; Lustik, Michael. Modeling Transitions to and from Democracy // Democratization, 2007, Vol. 14 (April), pp. 351-387.Vreeland, James R. The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War // Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2008, Vol. 52(3), pp. 401-425.Vreeland, James R. The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War // Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2008, Vol. 52(3), pp. 401-425.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.